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Revision as of 18:11, 4 November 2023 editGlasperlenspieler (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users2,066 edits Glasperlenspieler moved page Next Austrian legislative election to 2024 Austrian legislative election: The election will definitely be held in 2024, because 2023 is no longer possible: an election has to take place 3-4 months after being called for calendar reasons.Tag: New redirect  Latest revision as of 14:11, 22 January 2025 edit undoGlowstoneUnknown (talk | contribs)Extended confirmed users3,011 editsNo edit summary 
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{{Short description|none}}
#REDIRECT ]
{{Infobox election
| country = Austria
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = 2024 Austrian legislative election
| previous_year = 2024
| next_election =
| next_year =
| election_date = By 2029
| seats_for_election = All 183 seats in the ]
| majority_seats = 92
| opinion_polls =
| turnout =


| image1 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Herbert Kickl - Pressekonferenz am 1. Sep. 2020.JPG|bSize=110|cWidth=100|cHeight=133|oLeft=4}}
{{Redirect category shell|
| leader1 = ]
{{R from move}}
| party1 = Freedom Party of Austria
| last_election1 = 28.8%, 57 seats
| seats1 =
| seat_change1 =
| popular_vote1 =
| percentage1 =
| swing1 =

| image2 = {{CSS image crop|Image=|bSize=110|cWidth=100|cHeight=133|oLeft=4}}
| leader2 = ]{{efn|Acting}}
| party2 = Austrian People's Party
| colour2 = {{Party color|Austrian People's Party (2017)}}
| last_election2 = 26.3%, 51 seats
| seats2 =
| seat_change2 =
| popular_vote2 =
| percentage2 =
| swing2 =

| image3 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Andreas Babler 2023 (cropped).jpg|bSize=110|cWidth=100|cHeight=133|oLeft=4}}
| leader3 = ]
| party3 = Social Democratic Party of Austria
| last_election3 = 21.1%, 41 seats
| seats3 =
| seat_change3 =
| popular_vote3 =
| percentage3 =
| swing3 =

| image4 = {{CSS image crop|Image=Meinl-Reisinger PKEU (cropped).png|bSize=110|cWidth=100|cHeight=133|oLeft=4}}
| leader4 = ]
| party4 = NEOS (Austria)
| last_election4 = 9.1%, 18 seats
| seats4 =
| seat_change4 =
| popular_vote4 =
| percentage4 =
| swing4 =

| image5 = {{CSS image crop|Image=PK Frühjahrskampagne 09032023 (52736558865) (cropped).jpg|bSize=106|cWidth=100|cHeight=133|oLeft=5}}
| leader5 = ]
| party5 = The Greens (Austria)
| last_election5 = 8.2%, 16 seats
| seats5 =
| seat_change5 =
| popular_vote5 =
| percentage5 =
| swing5 =

| map_image =
| map_size =
| map_caption =

| title = ]
| before_election = '']'' (caretaker)
| before_party = ]
| after_election =
| after_party =
}} }}

Legislative elections will be held in Austria by 2029 to elect the 29th National Council, the lower house of Austria's bicameral parliament.

==Background==
The ] resulted in the ] (FPÖ) becoming the largest party in parliament for the first time. The ] (ÖVP) finished in second place after suffering significant losses and the ] (SPÖ) dropped to third place for the first time in the party's history even though its vote share was almost identical to the ]. ] also obtained its best-ever result while the ] remained in parliament albeit with a reduced seat share. No other party was able to clear the 4% threshold to win seats.

==Electoral system==
The 183 members of the ] are elected by ] ] at three levels; a single national constituency, nine constituencies based on the ], and 39 regional constituencies. Seats are apportioned to the regional constituencies based on the results of the most recent census. For parties to receive any representation in the National Council, they must either win at least one seat in a constituency directly, or clear a 4 percent national ].<ref name="system-1">{{cite web|title=Wahlen zum Nationalrat|url=https://www.parlament.gv.at/PERK/PARL/DEM/NRWAHL/|publisher=Österreichisches Parlament|date=12 September 2017|access-date=28 October 2017}}</ref>

Following the elections, seats are allocated to the candidates of successful parties and lists in a three-stage process, starting with the regional constituencies. Seats are distributed according to the ] in the regional constituencies, and with unallocated seats distributed at the state constituency level.<ref>{{cite web|title=Wahlen|url=http://www.bmi.gv.at/412/|publisher=Bundesministerium für Inneres|access-date=28 October 2017}}</ref> Any remaining seats are then allocated using the ] at the federal level, to ensure overall proportionality between a party's national vote share and its share of parliamentary seats.<ref>{{cite web|title=Das Verhältniswahlrecht und das Ermittlungsverfahren bei der Nationalratswahl|url=https://www.parlament.gv.at/PERK/FAQ/WAHL/ERMNRWAHL/index.shtml|publisher=Österreichisches Parlament|date=21 October 2017|access-date=28 October 2017}}</ref>

In addition to voting for a political party, voters may cast three preferential votes for specific candidates of that party, but are not required to do so.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.oesterreich.gv.at/themen/leben_in_oesterreich/wahlen/1/Seite.320260.html|title=Vorzugsstimmenvergabe bei einer Nationalratswahl|website=State of Austria (official website)|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=16 October 2019}}</ref> These additional votes do not affect the proportional allocation based on the vote for the party or list, but can change the rank order of candidates on a party's lists at the federal, state, and regional level. The threshold to increase the position of a candidate on a federal party list is 7 percent, compared to 10 percent at the state level, and 14 percent at the regional level. The names of candidates on regional party lists are printed on the ballot and can be marked with an "x" to indicate the voter's preference. Preference votes for candidates on party lists at the state and federal level, however, must be written in by the voter, either by writing the name or the rank number of the candidate in a blank spot provided for that purpose.<ref>{{cite web|title=Vorzugsstimmenvergabe bei einer Nationalratswahl|url=https://www.help.gv.at/Portal.Node/hlpd/public/content/32/Seite.320260.html|publisher=HELP.gv.at|date=1 January 2017|access-date=28 October 2017}}</ref>

==Opinion polls==
{|class=wikitable
|]
|-
|Local regression of the voter intention polling for the next Austrian legislative election.
|}
===2025===
{| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
! rowspan="2"| Polling firm
! rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date
! rowspan="2"| Sample<br>size
! rowspan="2"| Method
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| Others
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| Lead
|-
! style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Austrian People's Party (2017)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Austria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|NEOS (Austria)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|The Greens (Austria)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Communist Party of Austria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|The Beer Party (Austria)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Independent}};"|
|-
|
|13–15 Jan 2025
|1,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''35'''
|20
|20
|11
|8
|–
|–
|6
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|15
|-
|
|13–14 Jan 2025
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''38'''
|17
|19
|12
|9
|3
|–
|2
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|19
|-
|
|7–8 Jan 2025
|1,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''39'''
|17
|19
|10
|10
|3
|–
|2
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|20
|-
|
|3–4 Jan 2025
|1,250
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''37'''
|21
|19
|11
|8
|3
|–
|1
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|16
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| ]
| data-sort-value="2024-09-29" | 29 Sep 2024
| –
| –
| style="background:#C6D9EA;" | '''28.8'''
| 26.3
| 21.1
| 9.1
| 8.2
| 2.4
| 2.0
| 2.0
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.5
|}

===2024===
{| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
! rowspan="2"| Polling firm
! rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date
! rowspan="2"| Sample<br>size
! rowspan="2"| Method
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| ]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| Others
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"| Lead
|-
! style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Austrian People's Party (2017)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Social Democratic Party of Austria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|NEOS (Austria)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|The Greens (Austria)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Communist Party of Austria}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|The Beer Party (Austria)}};"|
! style="background:{{party color|Independent}};"|
|-
|
|17–18 Dec 2024
|1,250
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''37'''
|21
|20
|10
|8
|3
|–
|1
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|16
|-
|
|16–17 Dec 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''36'''
|20
|19
|10
|8
|3
|–
|4
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|16
|-
|
|13–17 Dec 2024
|809
|Online + CAPI
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''35'''
|22
|20
|10
|8
|3
|1
|1
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|13
|-
|
|9–10 Dec 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''36'''
|21
|19
|10
|8
|3
|–
|3
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|15
|-
|
|2–4 Dec 2024
|800
|Online + Phone
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''35'''
|20
|21
|12
|8
|2
|–
|2
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|14
|-
|
|2–4 Dec 2024
|1,004
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''34'''
|21
|20
|9
|8
|3
|1
|4
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|13
|-
|
|2–3 Dec 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''35'''
|20
|19
|11
|8
|4
|–
|3
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|15
|-
|
|25–26 Nov 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''33'''
|21
|19
|11
|8
|4
|–
|4
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|12
|-
|
|25–26 Nov 2024
|1,018
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''32'''
|24
|20
|12
|7
|–
|–
|5
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|8
|-
|
|18–19 Nov 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''32'''
|23
|20
|10
|8
|3
|–
|4
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|9
|-
|
|11–13 Nov 2024
|1,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''32'''
|22
|21
|9
|8
|2
|2
|4
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|10
|-
|
|11–12 Nov 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''33'''
|23
|21
|9
|8
|3
|–
|3
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|10
|-
|
|4–5 Nov 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''34'''
|23
|21
|9
|8
|3
|–
|2
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|11
|-
|
|28–29 Oct 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''33'''
|23
|21
|10
|8
|3
|–
|2
|style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"|10
|-
|
| 25–28 Oct 2024
| 1,008
| Online
| style="background:#C6D9EA;" | '''32'''
| 25
| 20
| 10
| 8
| 2
| –
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
|-
|
|21–22 Oct 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''33'''
|23
|19
|11
|8
|4
|–
|2
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
|-
|
|14–15 Oct 2024
|2,000
|Online
|style="background:#C6D9EA;" |'''32'''
|25
|19
|10
|8
|3
|–
|3
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
|-
|
| 7–8 Oct 2024
| 2,000
| Online
| style="background:#C6D9EA;" | '''33'''
| 26
| 19
| 10
| 7
| 2
|–
| 3
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 7
|-
|
| 30 Sep – 1 Oct 2024
| 2,000
| Online
| style="background:#C6D9EA;" | '''30'''
| 25
| 20
| 11
| 8
| 2
|–
| 4
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| ]
| data-sort-value="2024-09-29" | 29 Sep 2024
| –
| –
| style="background:#C6D9EA;" | '''28.8'''
| 26.3
| 21.1
| 9.1
| 8.2
| 2.4
| 2.0
| 2.0
| style="background:{{party color|Freedom Party of Austria}};color:#FFFFFF;"| 2.5
|}

== Notes ==
{{Reflist|group=note}}
{{notelist}}

==References==
{{reflist}}

{{Austrian elections}}

]
]
]

Latest revision as of 14:11, 22 January 2025

Next Austrian legislative election
← 2024 By 2029
All 183 seats in the National Council
92 seats needed for a majority
  Herbert Kickl - Pressekonferenz am 1. Sep. 2020.JPG Andreas Babler 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Herbert Kickl Christian Stocker Andreas Babler
Party FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ
Last election 28.8%, 57 seats 26.3%, 51 seats 21.1%, 41 seats
  Meinl-Reisinger PKEU (cropped).png PK Frühjahrskampagne 09032023 (52736558865) (cropped).jpg
Leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger Werner Kogler
Party NEOS Greens
Last election 9.1%, 18 seats 8.2%, 16 seats
Incumbent Chancellor

Alexander Schallenberg (caretaker)
ÖVP



Legislative elections will be held in Austria by 2029 to elect the 29th National Council, the lower house of Austria's bicameral parliament.

Background

The 2024 legislative election resulted in the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) becoming the largest party in parliament for the first time. The Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) finished in second place after suffering significant losses and the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) dropped to third place for the first time in the party's history even though its vote share was almost identical to the 2019 election. NEOS also obtained its best-ever result while the Greens remained in parliament albeit with a reduced seat share. No other party was able to clear the 4% threshold to win seats.

Electoral system

The 183 members of the National Council are elected by open list proportional representation at three levels; a single national constituency, nine constituencies based on the federal states, and 39 regional constituencies. Seats are apportioned to the regional constituencies based on the results of the most recent census. For parties to receive any representation in the National Council, they must either win at least one seat in a constituency directly, or clear a 4 percent national electoral threshold.

Following the elections, seats are allocated to the candidates of successful parties and lists in a three-stage process, starting with the regional constituencies. Seats are distributed according to the Hare quota in the regional constituencies, and with unallocated seats distributed at the state constituency level. Any remaining seats are then allocated using the D'Hondt method at the federal level, to ensure overall proportionality between a party's national vote share and its share of parliamentary seats.

In addition to voting for a political party, voters may cast three preferential votes for specific candidates of that party, but are not required to do so. These additional votes do not affect the proportional allocation based on the vote for the party or list, but can change the rank order of candidates on a party's lists at the federal, state, and regional level. The threshold to increase the position of a candidate on a federal party list is 7 percent, compared to 10 percent at the state level, and 14 percent at the regional level. The names of candidates on regional party lists are printed on the ballot and can be marked with an "x" to indicate the voter's preference. Preference votes for candidates on party lists at the state and federal level, however, must be written in by the voter, either by writing the name or the rank number of the candidate in a blank spot provided for that purpose.

Opinion polls

Local regression of the voter intention polling for the next Austrian legislative election.

2025

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Method FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ NEOS Grüne KPÖ BIER Others Lead
INSA 13–15 Jan 2025 1,000 Online 35 20 20 11 8 – – 6 15
Market-Lazarsfeld 13–14 Jan 2025 2,000 Online 38 17 19 12 9 3 – 2 19
Market-Lazarsfeld 7–8 Jan 2025 1,000 Online 39 17 19 10 10 3 – 2 20
IFDD 3–4 Jan 2025 1,250 Online 37 21 19 11 8 3 – 1 16
2024 legislative election 29 Sep 2024 – – 28.8 26.3 21.1 9.1 8.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.5

2024

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Method FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ NEOS Grüne KPÖ BIER Others Lead
IFDD 17–18 Dec 2024 1,250 Online 37 21 20 10 8 3 – 1 16
Market-Lazarsfeld 16–17 Dec 2024 2,000 Online 36 20 19 10 8 3 – 4 16
Market 13–17 Dec 2024 809 Online + CAPI 35 22 20 10 8 3 1 1 13
Market-Lazarsfeld 9–10 Dec 2024 2,000 Online 36 21 19 10 8 3 – 3 15
Unique Research 2–4 Dec 2024 800 Online + Phone 35 20 21 12 8 2 – 2 14
INSA 2–4 Dec 2024 1,004 Online 34 21 20 9 8 3 1 4 13
Market-Lazarsfeld 2–3 Dec 2024 2,000 Online 35 20 19 11 8 4 – 3 15
Market-Lazarsfeld 25–26 Nov 2024 2,000 Online 33 21 19 11 8 4 – 4 12
OGM 25–26 Nov 2024 1,018 Online 32 24 20 12 7 – – 5 8
Market-Lazarsfeld 18–19 Nov 2024 2,000 Online 32 23 20 10 8 3 – 4 9
INSA 11–13 Nov 2024 1,000 Online 32 22 21 9 8 2 2 4 10
Market-Lazarsfeld 11–12 Nov 2024 2,000 Online 33 23 21 9 8 3 – 3 10
Market-Lazarsfeld 4–5 Nov 2024 2,000 Online 34 23 21 9 8 3 – 2 11
Market-Lazarsfeld 28–29 Oct 2024 2,000 Online 33 23 21 10 8 3 – 2 10
OGM 25–28 Oct 2024 1,008 Online 32 25 20 10 8 2 – 3 7
Market-Lazarsfeld 21–22 Oct 2024 2,000 Online 33 23 19 11 8 4 – 2 10
Market-Lazarsfeld 14–15 Oct 2024 2,000 Online 32 25 19 10 8 3 – 3 7
Market-Lazarsfeld 7–8 Oct 2024 2,000 Online 33 26 19 10 7 2 – 3 7
Market-Lazarsfeld 30 Sep – 1 Oct 2024 2,000 Online 30 25 20 11 8 2 – 4 5
2024 legislative election 29 Sep 2024 – – 28.8 26.3 21.1 9.1 8.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.5

Notes

  1. Acting

References

  1. "Wahlen zum Nationalrat". Österreichisches Parlament. 12 September 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  2. "Wahlen". Bundesministerium für Inneres. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  3. "Das Verhältniswahlrecht und das Ermittlungsverfahren bei der Nationalratswahl". Österreichisches Parlament. 21 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  4. "Vorzugsstimmenvergabe bei einer Nationalratswahl". State of Austria (official website). Retrieved 16 October 2019.
  5. "Vorzugsstimmenvergabe bei einer Nationalratswahl". HELP.gv.at. 1 January 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
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