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This topic contains controversial issues, some of which have reached a consensus for approach and neutrality, and some of which may be disputed. Before making any potentially controversial changes to the article, please carefully read the discussion-page dialogue to see if the issue has been raised before, and ensure that your edit meets all of Misplaced Pages's policies and guidelines. Please also ensure you use an accurate and concise edit summary.

Important notice: This is the talk page for the article Global warming. Some common points of argument are addressed at Misplaced Pages's Global Warming FAQ. If you are new to this page please take a moment and have a look at some of the frequently asked questions before starting a new topic of discussion. Also bear in mind that this is not a forum for general discussion about global warming. This page is only to be used for discussing improvements to the Global warming article. Thank you.

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Facts may be misconstued

In the 1960s the "facts" presented were that we were coming upon an era of overpopulation (from 3 to 6 billion), which would bring certain catastrophe. It turns out that the population more than doubled and there has been no such catastrophe, though there are certainly some shortages or misdistribution of global resources. The same is likely true of global warming. Though, there is certainly threat of pollution, greenhouse gasses, et al that need to be dealt with ASAP, even doubling our efforts, there are no hard facts that it will lead to a form of global warming that will have catastrophic effects or destroy the planet. In fact, the warming (or cooling) of the globe may have positive effects that we are not even considering, or are at least the shifting of climates around the world from warm to cool and cool to warm, as well as other natural or non-lethal changes. In other words, global warming is really change that will not be catastrophic, but a benefit, just as increased population can be seen to having been beneficial, in that it creates more diversity, more power for emerging nations and cultures, etc. This is an unusual position to offer in the current atmosphere, but it should be considered --despite the current "facts." Dealing with pollution is one thing; concluding mass destruction is another.--71.139.165.161 (talk) 15:19, 15 November 2008 (UTC)

Considering this article has IMO put a huge dent in the man-caused any significant global warming 'theory'. How will the article be edited? The IPCC or rather the data they use seems to have been called into question in a very serious way here... or will the article just be deemed "not a peer reviewed source"?~concerned citizen —Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.252.239.204 (talk) 23:27, 16 November 2008 (UTC)

Yep, got it in one. It's not only "not peer-reviewed", its shamelessly biased crap. It may surprise you, but the IPCC reports are not based on October 2008 data. If you are concerned, why don't you read some real science? The IPCC reports, especially the SPMs, are quite readable, and have extensive bibliographies. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:50, 16 November 2008 (UTC)

Including Global Warming as a theory vs. fact

In the first sentence of the Global Warming article there is no mention of Global Warming as a theory. The definition of a fact is that it is true if it is undisputed by competent scientists, whereas Global Warming has been disputed for some time now. I propose the first sentence be changed to, "Global warming is a theory that explains an increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century, and its projected continuation." This would best represent the topic. --EchoRevamped (talk) 22:56, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

You confuse the fact of global warming (the temperature has risen significantly since ca. 1900) and the scientific theory that explains global warming via a number of mechanisms, the most significant of which is the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:02, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

The notion that we should qualify the description of global warming as a mere "theory" sounds remarkably like an anti-evolution rant. The reality is that there is consensus among the scientists who have actually studied the matter. Smptq (talk) 23:06, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

I think global warming is man-made and we should ride bikes or something to stop it. The polar bears and their young are in danger because of global warming. Now not all of it is man-made but most of it is. We need to help prevent global warming and we need to take care of our world because there is only 1!!! If we dont do something now then there is going to be more damage and lots of people are going to get skin cancer and other diseases i guess. Global warming has been happening for many years and it could go on maybe forever but it just want to help prevent global warming so I got a bunch of friends to help clean the polluted rivers and oceans and lakes. And I always recycle and you should too. That is what I have to say about global warming. Love *Hannah* I am only 13 years old and you could make a difference too. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 96.249.224.142 (talk) 22:36, 23 October 2008 (UTC)

The fact is that the 21st century trend is for cooling of -0.12C/decade, a fact that makes this global warming article shamefully misleading and when the 2008 temperature figures come out you will have no choice but to admit the warming has stopped (barring, that is, an unprecendented rise in temperature in the next few months)Bugsy (talk) 23:15, 30 September 2008 (UTC)

Stephan, The article starts out by saying there is a 'scientific consensus' accepting the theory, then subtly portrays it as fact. Case in point are my recent edits. The article stated that a scientist discovered that industrial emissions raise the temperature of the Earth. At some point in history, the scientific consensus was that the Sun revolved around the Earth, to say someone 'discovered' that would not be accurate and would not make sense. The same can be said of the Theory of Relativity, there is probably a scientific consensus that it would be true if there were a way to test it, but there is currently no way to put it into practice and make it fact. Without getting into a debate on why man-made global warming is happening or not, in order to maintain NPOV, and be consistent through the article, the theory of man influencing global temperature should be treated as unproven just the same as any other theory. It's a bad idea using 'scientific consensus' because there are plenty of scientists that do not accept the theory, and there are political and monetary motivations on both sides of the debate. Ryratt (talk) 18:06, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

Sorry, but you are wrong. You confuse the modern theory of anthropogenic global warming through an enhanced greenhouse effect with the greenhouse effect itself. The greenhouse effect, discovered by Fourier and analyzed in some detail by Arrhenius, is not remotely under discussion - its a known and (nearly) universally acknowledged fact without which there would be no human life on this planet - and what other life there might be would complain about the cold all the time. The passage you edited dealt with the latter, not the former. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:36, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

Ryratt is right, it is a theory. I assume that you know that the temperature is determined by using a model (another word for theory). Have you looked at the model details? Of course not. It is proprietary. No one (except for the team that maintains it) knows what it is or how it works. Have you ever wondered why satellites are used for ocean temperatures but not for land temperatures? Simple, it would produce different results. Different models. Different ways to collect data. Secret algorithms. Ryratt is right, it is a theory. Q Science (talk) 22:01, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

• Actually what you describe would be, if it were true, "scientific fraud", not a "theory" at all. The theory would already have been falsified by conflicting data, but these "evil climate scientists" would be deceiving all of us by engaging in scientific fraud.

The reality is completely different. Not only is global warming a theory, it is a theory with very solid foundations in basic physics. Count Iblis (talk) 22:11, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

• Sorry, Q Science, but what are you talking about? The greenhouse effect, or anthropogenic global warming? To repeat myself, they are not the same thing, and while both are strongly supported, the greenhouse effect itself is not even remotely controversial. It's a direct conclusion from basic thermodynamics. It raises the temperature of the Earth not by some small amount that you can possibly fiddle with or argue about, but by more than 30 degrees centigrade. To quote from the very next paragraph after the one that Ryratt edited (and that I reverted): Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F), without which Earth would be uninhabitable. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:36, 16 October 2008 (UTC)

I apologize - that was very poorly worded. I agree that AWG is a theory, not the greenhouse effect.

However, the surface temperature is determined using an algorithm - that was the "model" I was referring to. From what I've read, the model details are proprietary. In addition, satellite data is used only for the oceans, not for land. Presumably, the satellites measure the surface temperature, but the models use air temperature taken several feet above the surface (but only for the land). I also understand that we know the change in temperature to a higher degree of accuracy than we know the actual temperature because certain errors tend to cancel out. But it is all still theory.

BTW, I have a problem with defining the greenhouse effect as "absorption and emission of infrared radiation". It seems more correct to define it as "absorption and emission of heat" to include sensible heat and enthalpy (20% to 50% of the heat absorbed by the atmosphere, depending on the source). Or maybe I am missing something. Q Science (talk) 08:49, 20 October 2008 (UTC)

No, you missed my point. Many scientists have the data which prove there hasn't been a significant rise in temperature. I'm not "confusing" the so called belief of "Global Warming" and its scientific theory. I'm saying that Global Warming in its entirety is based on disputed facts and untrustworthy data. These fallacies lead to the belief that Global Warming has lead to a temperature increase, which it hasn't, anthropogenic or not. This is why I believe such a disputed topic should be considered a theory.--EchoRevamped (talk) 03:33, 12 September 2008 (UTC)

I see. If you have any recent and reliable sources denying global warming completely, bring them here. This particular meme mostly stopped after even Spencer and Christy found the warming signal in the satellite data. None of the at least semi-rational sceptic hold the position that the warming does not exist, as far as I know. Anyways, even if you were right (a stretch, but for the sake of argument), the warming itself would still not be a scientific theory. Please read that article. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:03, 12 September 2008 (UTC)

The word 'theory' is being used here, and I agree with Smptq that it is also used in Creationist arguments, in the way scientists use the word 'hypothesis'; that is, a pre-experimental, pre-data-collection idea of what might be. Scientific theories have accumulated enough evidence that the original hypothesis has, as far as we mere mortals should be concerned, been proven true. You might also say, 'theories are not theoretical', in the way in which 'theoretical' is commonly (mis-?)used. Scientists are not content with what we take to be sufficient evidence, their standards for evidence are higher, and thus even such proven hypotheses are known as theories. Global warming is either already a theory or well on its way to becoming one, depending on the stringency of required evidence one applies. Anarchangel (talk) 10:17, 30 September 2008 (UTC)

I realize this is a rather fringe opinion, but I feel "global warming" should encompass any kind of warming on any celestial body on a global scale. The article for globe mentions that a globe represents celestial bodies other than Earth, so my interpretation suggests that any warming on Mars, Jupiter, Earth or the Sun would count as "global warming." I believe the science on global warming that is mostly presented in this article should be moved to a separate article on anthropogenic global warming on Earth in the 20th and 21st century. In this light, however, global warming wouldn't be counted as a theory, because it would reference any actual warming that was happening.HillChris1234 (talk) 18:23, 25 September 2008 (UTC)

This article concerns itself with the topic of Global Warming, a term that refers specifically to changes in the climate of Earth. The climates of other planets are treated in their own articles or as part of the main article concerning that particular planet. Mishlai (talk) 08:18, 30 September 2008 (UTC)

There is a war going on between the skeptics and the computer scientists whether global warming is man-made or natural. No one really knows. But preventive measures should be taken none the less. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.13.137.7 (talk)

Human-Caused Global Warming: Might we come to a consensus that we identify, at the top of the article, a distinction between Global Warming as a possible scientific reality and the clearly identified intergovernmental study of computer models (1) currently cited in this article as supporting science for a non-referenced theory of human-caused global warming. No one has ever published such a theory. It is a public-opinion theory. (1) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis" *http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf

Furthermore, there is a large scientific debate on this issue that is not fairly represented here. Misplaced Pages has come under fire lately by the CEO of Overlook.com. I think our fair treatment of this subject would go a long way towards positioning us as the informational source that remains as free of policy and partisanism as our conscious efforts can carry us.

Such a look at this topic suggests that a few biases may be present at this time. In good conscience, I believe we should identify the details of the debate:

-That there is a scientific consensus that the earth *may* be warming. That this is the equivalent of a theory and so identified by its scientific supporters, not a fact or a law.

-That many scientists do not concede that human beings have caused such a possible warming

-That there is no science to support the anthro-catastrophic predictions often presented by the media

-That the most influential document in the debate is a governmental computer model assessment, not a scientific theory and not presented as a scientific theory by its authors.

-The Motive Mystery controversy: That governments stand to gain from taxes levied on greenhouse gas emissions.

-That the science on the effect of greenhouse gases includes indications that its negative effects are inert and that its positive effects include increasing plant growth.

This is the truth, the fact that these things are in question must be presented in a clear and honest way, a group-polished and expert-polished way that makes it possible for every person reading it to make a fair assessment, in large part without demanding extensive research or knowledge of jargon. I'm pretty sure that's what Misplaced Pages is supposed to be. Thank you.

I agree with the opinion that this article should be much more neutral. Misplaced Pages is a reference source, and, as such, should not be prejudiced toward either side. This article is overwhelmingly pro-global warming, leaving no room to dispute its validity. A person with no prior knowledge on the subject would be left with the opinion that global warming is a nearly universally excepted theory. There is only a brief mention of the counter-arguement, which is followed up with a statement that would lead one to believe that natural global warming is a ridiculous notion. As a personal believer in natural global warming, this misrepresentation is shocking. Now I'm not saying my side of the argument should be pushed on Misplaced Pages's many readers, either. I'm saying that the pro-global warming arguements should stay in blogs, and not in reference sources. (Tails512 (talk) 14:03, 29 October 2008 (UTC))

Global warming (as in "it gets warmer") is more than "nearly universally accepted". Its not a theory, but a widely accepted fact. Anthropogenic global warming, the scientific theory that explains a large part of the current global warming, is also nearly universally accepted, unless you give equal weight to the blogosphere and the scientific literature. See scientific opinion on climate change for a good overview of the opinion in the published science and in statements by scientific organizations. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:11, 29 October 2008 (UTC)

Stephan, you are completly missing the point. I'm not arguing whether or not global warming is happening, I'm arguing about whether or not it is man-made, and whether or not it is actually a problem. This is most certainly not universally accepted, and is only theory at this point. Don't believe me that there is controversy? Check out these opinion articles: Global Warming. They cover both sides of the arguement, and many would not agree with you, Stephan. (Tails512 (talk) 14:28, 30 October 2008 (UTC))

Actually, I don't find "You have logged out and your session has ended. Where can we take you?" to be particularly useful (and of course its plain wrong). Opinion articles are extremely weak sources anyways, and even weaker for what is essentially a scientific topic. I'll back the IPCC report or the US NAS evaluation against any number of popular press articles. "Global warming" in the plainest possible sense (it's getting warmer) is not and cannot be a (scientific) theory, as it simply does not have the right structure. It's either a fact, or it is wrong. Essentially no-one of scientific note takes the second position anymore. Anthropogenic global warming, on the other hand, is a scientific theory that happens to have extremely strong support in the scientific community (see my link above). It's slightly more complex than "is it man-made", as several natural and anthropogenic forces influence the climate, and there are both cooling and warming anthropogenic influences. That's why the IPCC as the foremost source on this topic says (and we quote): "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations". The question of whether or not global warming is actually a problem is yet another one, and in principle independent of the causes of the warming. However, again, the scientific opinion is overwhelmingly that it is a problem, as it puts enormous stress on the ecosystem and, via changes in weather, ecosystems, and sea-levels, also has a massive impact for humanity. Of course, "problem" does not imply "end of the world" - in fact, I think the chances are good that people in rich developed economies will be mostly shielded from direct impact. They will suffer significant economic losses, but distributed over quite some time. The brunt of the impact will be borne by the less developed and more vulnerable countries. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:24, 30 October 2008 (UTC)

Sorry, I forgot it was a subscription site, so you can't view it. If you had read it, you would have noticed that you are being delusional, and that "the scientific ipinion is overwhelmingly that it is a problem" is just not true. It is much closer to a 50-50 split than it is to 100%. If scientist's published opinions (that's what you would see if you were a member) are weak sources, I don't think I can ever find a good source on this subject. (Tails512 (talk) 13:35, 31 October 2008 (UTC))

(edit conflict) Tails512, that site looks like a library access site. In any case, if you are a member, as I would assume, you could provide specific references from it. However, note this: with any fringe opinion, on a topic where scientific consensus isn't universal but is nevertheless overwhelming, such that an encyclopedia can treat it as, in certain ways, fact, especially if the opposition is properly noted, it will be possible, given how many scientists there are in the world, to dredge up a collection of opposing scientists. We do not determine the balance of scientific opinion anecdotally. Rather, we rely upon secondary sources, and most especially on formal reviews of the literature on the topic, which exist for global warming, most notably the IPCC reports, which do consider opposing views, and which provide some overview of the probabilities involved.

There is no significant disagreement that global warming exists, though there is disagreement as to how much warming there is, the time scale of it, and most certainly about the causes. So you won't see "Global warming" treated as a theory, in terms of the raw fact of it. Beyond that, the scientific consensus that the warming we are seeing is "mostly" anthropogenic is strong. Not universal. So we treat statements about anthropogenic cause with some caution, neither treating it as "mere theory," for it is stronger than that, even though technically, causation of anything is theoretical. Editors who have a point of view that (1) the global warming we are seeing is not unusual or, especially, that it is due to causes other than human activity, are certainly correct to ask that the article be fair and balanced on this, and that is a matter for editorial consensus to decide, i.e., what constitutes "fair and balanced," avoiding undue weight, and to edit with this in mind, respecting the policies and guidelines involved, such as WP:NPOV and behavioral limits as well, prohibiting incivility, edit warring, etc. --Abd (talk) 14:34, 31 October 2008 (UTC)

So, because opposing viewpoints appear in a private-access publication called "Opposing Viewpoint", that makes no claim to be representative of all viewpoints in proportion, you can conclude from opinion pieces that the split is 50-50? You are the one being delusional. =Axlq 14:14, 31 October 2008 (UTC)

Indeed. That resource specializes on finding "balanced" material for pre-college level schools. And looking at our page on the print edition, Global Warming: Opposing Viewpoints (2002), you will see very few good sources (on either side). There are very few excepts from scientific synthesis reports (all on the "pro" side), some popular press articles, some environmental articles, and a whole lot of right-wing think-tank publications, self-published crap, and even a LaRouche magazine. If you want to learn something about the science, check out peer-reviewed scientific articles. Google Scholar is a good start, although even that indexes a lot of the grey literature. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:33, 31 October 2008 (UTC)

Flat-screen TVs

Please decide on whether or not to mention this report.

• Flat screen TVs blamed for accelerating global warming - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

-- Wavelength (talk) 18:14, 23 October 2008 (UTC)

It doesn't belong here - but if there is more substantial coverage of it (ie. more than a single newscoverage, which iirc originates in a press-release from a company who just developed a method not to use these), then it would belong in Greenhouse gases. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:46, 23 October 2008 (UTC)

Thank you for your advice. -- Wavelength (talk) 22:50, 23 October 2008 (UTC)

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ibwC_yqdCtXd24mBJe6lMkwnUBaAD9415G5O0 ~ UBeR (talk) 14:25, 31 October 2008 (UTC)

New Chart

Is it time for a new chart of global temperatures? The one we are using is now four years out of date. Stephen W. Houghton II 70.150.94.194 (talk) 16:53, 29 October 2008 (UTC)

Which one are you talking about? The main chart includes 2007 data. 2008 data will not be available before 2008 is over. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:05, 29 October 2008 (UTC)

The main chart at the top of the page is the one I mean. It seems to be out of date if I am understanding the text associated with it on its page. That seems to say that the data set ends in 2004. Stephen W. Houghton II 70.150.94.194 (talk) 17:52, 29 October 2008 (UTC)

I see. No, the chart is up-to-date. It uses the dataset from the Hadley center. That data set is continuously updated, as is our chart. The last description of the data set and methodology is from 2003 (I don't know where you see 2004), but the data is current. Count the blue dots (2000 is the local minimum). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:58, 29 October 2008 (UTC)

Clathrate Gun

Does this point to Clathrate Gun Hypothesis? http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/content-view-39973-113.html

To be honest, with paragraphs like "Methane accounts for roughly one-fifth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, though its effect is 25x greater than that of carbon dioxide. Its impact on global warming comes from the reflection of the sun's light back to the Earth (like a greenhouse)" the article is so muddled that I would not take it as evidence for everything. If you are interested, look at the Geophysical ReviewResearch Letters paper. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:15, 30 October 2008 (UTC)

Its an obfuscated rewrite of this press-release: . And a good example as to why you should always take science reporting in the popular press, as (at most) providing a hint. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 01:47, 31 October 2008 (UTC)

GRL = Geophysical Research Letters. Not Review. Link to pre-print, just in cases. - Atmoz (talk) 04:16, 31 October 2008 (UTC)

Tangents

Does anyone else think that the article has accumulated more tangentially-relevant details than are appropriate for a "big picture" overview article? We don't need to include everything here; that's why we have links to related articles. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:18, 7 November 2008 (UTC)

Yes, I agree. This article is absolutely baffling for the nonspecialist. It has presumably been bogged down with scientific detail to appease and impress the "doubters." Would an article on global warming really look like this in any other general encyclopedia? Oh, and I just that[REDACTED] considers this to be one of their best articles. Wow. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 98.199.21.97 (talk) 12:33, 13 November 2008 (UTC)

Yes, it's hard to find the most important parts. Looking at it as a layman, the subsection on methane in the Greenhouse effect section seemed to raise more problems than it solved. One part (Thawing permafrost) was based on very recent research in a press release and newspaper reports (misspelt as "The Independant"), another (Clathrate gun hypothesis) didn't say what the probability of the process is. One help to the lay reader would be to put the rough figures (with verbal qualification) in the introduction and the numerically qualified ones in the article, rather than the other way round. N p holmes (talk) 16:46, 13 November 2008 (UTC)

Um. I think I agree. Ive taken those two sections out (who put them in?). Is more pruning required? William M. Connolley (talk) 19:18, 13 November 2008 (UTC)

More on readability: I've evaluated the introduction using several measures of readability. The Gunning fog index works out to 18, and the Flesch-Kincaid grade level is 15. These scores are comparable to scores for the Harvard Law Review, and are atrocious for writing that is supposed to be broadly accessible. Only about one in three U.S. adults are comfortable reading at this level. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 21:52, 13 November 2008 (UTC)

It could be worse; see linear regression for example. How far should the article be dumbed down? Who sets the standard? ~Amatulić (talk) 22:15, 13 November 2008 (UTC)

Writing clearly is not at all the same thing as "dumbing down." Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 22:22, 13 November 2008 (UTC)

1. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml

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