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Revision as of 23:22, 6 April 2006
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The Ukrainian parliamentary election took place on March 26, 2006. Election campaigning officially began on July 7, 2005. Between November 26 and December 31, 2005 party lists of candidates were formed.
This election to the Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, was held according to the proportional election system--that is, in a single nation-wide electoral district with votes being allocated to the political parties or election blocs rather than to individual candidates. In the previous parliamentary elections half of parliamentary representatives (deputies) were elected on proportional basis, while the other half were elected in single-mandate constituencies.
The constitution was amended in 2005 following negotiations and agreements during the 2004 presidential elections abolishing single member and replacing them with an increased multi-member proportional representation. The amended constitution, which took effect on January 1, 2006, also transferred some power from the President to the parliament making it a parliamentary-presidential democracy.
According to election law and system adopted, the political parties or election blocs need to collect at least 3% of the national vote in order to gain seats in the parliament.
Results
According to the Central Election Commission of Ukraine 67.13% of registered voters participated in the election.
As of now the Central Election Commission (CVK) finished preliminary vote counting; the results can be seen at the Commission's website. The official announcement is required to be made by April 10.
Based on the preliminary results out of 45 parties only 5 passed the required 3% electoral threshold (see the table below).
Comparing with the early polls, it came as a surprise that President Viktor Yushchenko's party "Our Ukraine" received less than 14% of the national vote, coming third after Party of Regions, and Yulia Timoshenko Bloc.
As per preliminary results, the Ukranian Communist Party was soundly trounced, getting less than 4% of the vote and 21 deputies as a result, as opposed to their 20% in the 2002 elections.
The People's Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko, despite some suggestions, did not pass the electoral threshold, collecting only 2.93% of votes, 0.07% short of the required 3% electoral threshold. Commenting the preliminary results the leader of the Opposition Bloc, Natalia Vitrenko expressed: "Based on what grounds CVK shows the total number of actual voters as 25,250 thousands? According to CVK data, 2% of votes are invalid, and 1,8% are "against all", therefore these numbers should be excluded. The base for calculations should not be more than 24,500 thousand; and that is 3% out of the votes that CVK counted for out Bloc." Nonetheless, according to the Law on Election, Article 1.4 "The mandates are distributed to the parties (blocs) that obtained no less than three percents of votes of voters that participated in the election"
A set of parties which did not pass the electoral threshold, notably People's Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko and the Opposition Bloc "Ne Tak" have made claims of the elections being highly falsified and asked for vote recount. Recent reports in the media have indicated that Ukraine's President has also suggested that if necessary a partial recount of the March 26 ballot should be made. If significant mistakes were made in the tally of votes there is a chance for Opposition Block of Natali Vitrenko to exceed the 3% threshold required by law.
Over 22% of voters who supported minor candidates (with less then the 3%) will not be represented by the parties elected due to the electoral method used (party list proportional representation with an election threshold).
It is expected that an 'Orange' coalition between (1) Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko, (2) Bloc "Our Ukraine", and (3) Socialist Party of Ukraine will form government when Ukraine's Parliament meets next time. A coalition of (1) Party of Regions and (2) Bloc "Our Ukraine" is also possible. Latest reports indicate that President Yushchenko is testing both options.
Under Ukraine's constitution the Verkhovna Rada must meet within 2 weeks from the date of the official completion of the election. After that it has up to one month to form a workable majority and to form a government. Should a majority coalition not be formed within that period the President, Viktor Yushchenko, can dissolve the legislature and hold new elections. While it is not expected this may happen, it can nevertheless serve as a powerful trump card that can be played by the President's "Our Ukraine" bloc in any coalition negotiations.
Template:Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2006
World reaction
According to Arabic newsmedia Aljazeera, Party of the regions has alleged that the general elections have been marred by irregularities and poor organisation as the first exit polls came in. But while acknowledging "some organisational problems", most other parties and Western observers have given the vote a largely clean bill of health.
Russian newspaper Izvestia predicts that Ukraine can expect more political instability and worsening economic situation.
According to Russian Gazeta.ru, Tymoshenko, Yushenko and the Socialists can form a coalition. Yulia Tymoshenko is sure she will become a new PM. Yushchenko and Georgian President Saakishvili already congratulated her with victory. ,,
According to Russian Rian, Tymoshenko promises to reconsider the Russian-Ukrainian gas deal.
Washington Post informed that Yushchenko's party was beaten into a humiliating third place in parliamentary elections as the pro-Russian party of the man he defeated for the presidency 16 months ago appeared headed for a clear victory, according to exit polls. The Party of Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovych, who was defeated by Yushchenko in 2004 following massive street protests known as the Orange Revolution, secured a commanding 33.3 percent of the vote, according to one poll. A second exit poll gave his party 27.5 percent.
On March 27, Arabic Aljazeera reported that Yulia Tymoshenko, the former PM, has scored a triumph in parliamentary elections with her own bloc coming second and placing her in a position to form a coalition government. Viktor Yanukovich's pro-Russian Regions party won the most seats, but Tymoshenko emerged as a rejuvenated political figure, saying that "Orange Revolution" liberals could close ranks to keep the pro-Russian party in opposition. The outcome was a double humiliation for Viktor Yushchenko, the president, who defeated Yanukovich in a presidential poll re-run after December's 2004 street protests, and later fell out with Tymoshenko, his former Orange Revolution comrade.
According to Forbes.com, Tymoshenko urged her estranged Orange Revolution allies to form a united front against their old pro-Russian nemesis, who was leading in early results from a weekend parliamentary election. Proposed coalition talks, which were supposed to get under way Monday, were delayed indefinitely.
According to Russian online media Lenta.ru, activists of Vitrenko's party erected tents and started boycotting the premises of Ukrainian Central Election Commission in protest of alleged violations. . According to Interfax-Ukraine, the tents are mostly empty.
Parties and electoral blocs registered
In all, the record number of 45 parties registered for the election, with only 5 of them have obtained the minimum 3% quota required to elect representatives to the Ukrainian parliament. Seats in the Verkhovna Rada are allocated among those parties obtaining the 3% quota according to the largest remainder method of seat allocation, using the Hare quota. Each Party meeting the 3% quota is entitled to appoint one representative for every 1/450 (approximately 0.22%) of the total vote allocated to all parties meeting the 3% threshold, with remining seats being awarded to the parties with the largest remaining fractions of 1/450 of the total vote allocated to all parties meeting the 3% threshold.
Name of the party or electoral bloc (number of candidates):
(Parties or blocs which have obtained at least 3% of the vote are in bold)
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Exit-polls
| National exit poll 2006 | Exit-poll Ukrainian sociology service | Exit-poll "FOM-Ukraine" |
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Source: Korrespondent.net
Polls before the election day
According to earlier polls, front-runners are Party of Regions on 34%, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc on 24%, as well as President Yushchenko's People's Union Our Ukraine.
Two other political forces that are virtually assured to pass a 3% barrier are the Socialist Party of Ukraine headed by Oleksander Moroz and the bloc of the current Speaker of Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Lytvyn (based on his former Agrarian Party of Ukraine renamed to the People's Party).
The Communist Party of Ukraine, which has progressively received less and less votes with each election (25% in 1998, 20% in 2002), is expected to continue their decline in voter support.
Whilst some parties have nominated over 400 candidates, it is unlikely that any single Party will elect over 200 members. In order to form a Government, under Ukraine's constitution, parties will need to form a coalition with two or more voting blocks within the first month following the declaration of the polls.
Razumkov Centre Poll
Each 2 weeks Razumkov Centre holds a respresentative national survey.
Table 1 shows the results for the parties likely to pass the three percent threshold.
| Party or electoral bloc | Nov. 2005 | Jan. 2006 (1) | Jan. 2006 (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party of Regions | 17.5% | 24.7% | 27.4% |
| Bloc "Our Ukraine" | 13.5% | 15.4% | 16.9% |
| Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc | 12.4% | 12.0% | 12.7% |
| Socialist Party of Ukraine | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.3% |
| Communist Party of Ukraine | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% |
| Lytvyn's People's Bloc | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc "People's Opposition" | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Other | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% |
| Against all | 6.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| Will not vote | 6.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Does not know/no opinion | 20.9% | 19.1% | 10.5% |
| Not answered | - | - | 0.2% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| number of respondents | 1993 | 2290 | 2016 |
| precision (p-value) | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
The latest Razumkov poll shows a consolidation of voter opinion and if the results of the poll are a true indication of voter intention the voter particpation rate will be above 90% of registered voters. Voting in Ukraine is not compulsory. Votes below the 3% threshhold are discarded which increases the proportional share of seats allocated to the remaining party/blocs. There is still 10.5% of voters undecided.
Kiev Institute of Sociology Poll
Kiev International Institute of Sociology presented the latest poll on February 9 based on a survey during 20-27 of January.
Table 2 shows the Kiev International Institute of Sociology poll results for the parties likely to pass the three percent threshold.
| Party or electoral bloc | Ukraine | West | Center | South | East |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party of Regions | 29.9% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 43.5% | 68.1% |
| Bloc "Our Ukraine" | 18.5% | 38.4% | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% |
| Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc | 10.4% | 16.6% | 16.6% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Socialist Party of Ukraine | 4.0% | 2.1% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Communist Party of Ukraine | 4.5% | 0.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Lytvyn's People's Bloc | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc "People's Opposition" | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Civic Bloc "Pora" | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Greens Party | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Ukrainian People's Bloc of Kostenko and Plyusch | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Opposition Bloc "Ne Tak" | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Other (less than 0.4% each) | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Undecided | 13.5% | 20.5% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 7.3% |
| Against all | 5.7% | 4.2% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| Does not vote | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
The map to the right shows the non administrative regional division used by KIIS: The Western region (orange) comprises the eight oblasts of the west - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Transcarpathia, and Chernivtsi oblasts; the Central region (yellow) is made up by Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kiev oblasts as well as the city of Kiev; the Southern region (light blue) consists of Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the Autonomus Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol; the Eastern region (dark blue) includes Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
References
- Razumkov Centre: 21 листопада 2005 Рейтинг політичних партій України (Центр ім.О. Разумков) (Conducted 3-13 November 2005, published 21 november 2005, Ukrainian only, edited)
- Razumkov Centre: 20 січня 2006 Електоральні рейтинги партій і блоків (Центр ім.О. Разумков) (Conducted 12-17 January 2006, published 20 January, Ukrainian only, edited)
- Razumkov Centre: 8 лютого 2006 Наміри голосування на виборах до Верховної Ради України та ідеологічні орієнтації громадян (Центр ім.О. Разумков) (Conducted 26-31 January 2006, published 8 February, Ukrainian only, edited)
- The November survey included Vitrenko's Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine. In January it was replaced with Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc "People's Opposition", which also includes the Party "Rus'-Ukrainian Union" (RUS')
- Kiev International Institute of Sociology:Report Documentation Link
See also
- List of political parties in Ukraine
- Voting systems
- Proportional representation
- Alternative vote
- Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2002
- Ukrainian presidential election, 2004
- Orange Revolution
External links
- Template:En icon/Template:Uk icon 2006 Parliament Election: Official website of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine
- Template:En icon OSCE Project Co-ordinator in Ukraine website
- Template:En icon Findings from an IFES November 2005 Survey 2
- Template:Ru icon Review of the most recent polls as of November 3, 2005
- Template:Ru icon Additional polls
- Template:En icon Additional polls and analysis (blog)