| Revision as of 23:14, 15 December 2004 editUltramarine (talk | contribs)33,507 edits →Nuclear power← Previous edit | Revision as of 23:21, 15 December 2004 edit undoUltramarine (talk | contribs)33,507 editsNo edit summaryNext edit → | ||
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| ===Renewable energy=== | ===Renewable energy=== | ||
| :''Main article: ]'' | |||
| Another possible solution to an energy shortage or predicted future shortage would be to use some of the world's remaining fossil fuel reserves as an investment in ] infrastructure such as ], ], ], ], ], ] and ] which do not suffer from a finite energy reserves, but do have a finite energy flow. The construction of a sufficiently large renewable energy infrastructure might avoid the economic consequences of an extended period of dramatically shrinking energy use per capita. | Another possible solution to an energy shortage or predicted future shortage would be to use some of the world's remaining fossil fuel reserves as an investment in ] infrastructure such as ], ], ], ], ], ] and ] which do not suffer from a finite energy reserves, but do have a finite energy flow. The construction of a sufficiently large renewable energy infrastructure might avoid the economic consequences of an extended period of dramatically shrinking energy use per capita. | ||
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| One factor potentially in renewable energy's favor is its much smaller environmental impact. Renewable energy sources may have a significantly smaller total "cost" compared with fossil fuel production after factoring in pollution, in other words, oil production is likely more expensive than the initial price seems to indicate and relative to renewable energy if you factor in the "cost" of pollution. | One factor potentially in renewable energy's favor is its much smaller environmental impact. Renewable energy sources may have a significantly smaller total "cost" compared with fossil fuel production after factoring in pollution, in other words, oil production is likely more expensive than the initial price seems to indicate and relative to renewable energy if you factor in the "cost" of pollution. | ||
| ===Energy storage and transportation fuel=== | |||
| ===Hydrogen=== | |||
| There is a widely held misconception that hydrogen is an alternative to crude, oil-based liquid fuels. As there are no uncombined hydrogen reserves in nature, hydrogen is itself not a source of chemical energy. Hydrogen-based energy always involves conversion of an upstream energy source. Typically, this energy source is natural gas, in the case of the steam-reformed methane process, or electricity (generated by fossil fuels, nuclear, solar or wind), in the case of water electrolysis. ]s have also been proposed as a way to generate hydrogen. | There is a widely held misconception that hydrogen is an alternative to crude, oil-based liquid fuels. As there are no uncombined hydrogen reserves in nature, hydrogen is itself not a source of chemical energy. Hydrogen-based energy always involves conversion of an upstream energy source. Typically, this energy source is natural gas, in the case of the steam-reformed methane process, or electricity (generated by fossil fuels, nuclear, solar or wind), in the case of water electrolysis. ]s have also been proposed as a way to generate hydrogen. | ||
| Many of the potential power sources sometimes produce no power, and cannot increase production when demanded. For example, solar power produce no power during the night and during the winter, when demand is greater. The role of such power sources will be greatly limited, unless there is way to store large amounts of energy. It is as a means of storage and transportation of energy that hydrogen may play a very important role. (See ] |
Many of the potential power sources sometimes produce no power, and cannot increase production when demanded. For example, solar power produce no power during the night and during the winter, when demand is greater. The role of such power sources will be greatly limited, unless there is way to store large amounts of energy. It is as a means of storage and transportation of energy that hydrogen may play a very important role. (See ]) However, the idea is currently impractical: hydrogen is inefficient to produce, and expensive to store, transport, and convert back to electricity. Research is underway to ameliorate these problems; the outcome is at best uncertain. | ||
| Another potential role for hydrogen is as a transportable source of energy for vehicles, taking the place of gasoline. |
Another potential role for hydrogen is as a transportable source of energy for vehicles, taking the place of gasoline. Diesel from the Fischer-Tropsch process, biodiesel and oil from thermal depolymerization have the advantage of already existing technology for diesel and gasoline engines and in place distribution infrastructure. | ||
| ===Speculative=== | ===Speculative=== | ||
Revision as of 23:21, 15 December 2004
Future energy development face great challenges due to an increasing world population, demands for higher standards of living and a much discused end to fossil fuels. Failure would result in overpopulation and a Malthusian catastrophe.
Oil
See Hubbert peak.
Non-conventional oil
- Main article: Non-conventional oil
Non-conventional oil is another source of oil separate from conventional or traditional oil. Non-conventional sources include: tar sands, oil shale and bitumen. Potentially significant deposits of non-conventional oil include the Athabasca Tar Sands site in northwestern Canada and the Venezuelan Orinoco tar sands. Oil companies estimate that the Athabasca and Orinoco sites (both of similar size) have as much as two-thirds of total global oil deposits, but they are not yet considered proven reserves of oil. Extracting a significant percentage of world oil production from tar sands may not be feasible. The extraction process takes a great deal of energy for heat and electrical power, presently coming from natural gas (itself in short supply). There are proposals to build a series of nuclear reactors to supply this energy. Non-conventional oil production is currently less efficient, and has a larger environmental impact than conventional oil production.
Other fossil fuels and the Fischer-Tropsch process
It is expected by geologist that natural gas will peak 5-15 years after oil does. There are large but finite coal reserves which may increasingly be used as a fuel source during oil depletion. The Fischer-Tropsch process converts carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane into liquid hydrocarbons of various forms. The carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide is generated by partial oxidation of coal and wood-based fuels. This process was developed and used extensively in World War II by the Germans, who had limited access to crude oil supplies. It is today used in South Africa to produce most of country's diesel from coal. Since there are large but finite coal reseves in the world, this technology could be used as an interim transportation fuel if conventional oil were to disappear. There are several companies developing the process to enable practical exploitation of so-called stranded gas reserves, those reserves which are impractical to exploit with conventional gas pipelines and LNG technology.
Nuclear power
- Main article: Nuclear power
The U.S. would require at least an elevenfold increase in nuclear power production to replace both the current amount of electricity generated from fossil fuels and gasoline usage. This may involve using hydrogen as transportation fuel, which adds inefficiency (perhaps increasing this ratio). Or it could be used together with for example biodiesel as transportation fuel.
There are about 50 years of today explored and economical uranium reserves in the ground. Instead using thorium as fuel, which is more common than uranium, could increase this.
Fast breeder reactors are another possibility. As opposed to current LWR (light water reactors) which burn the rare isotope of uranium U-235, fast breeder reactors produce plutonium from U-238, and then fission that to produce electricity and thermal heat. It has been estimated that there is anywhere from 10,000 to five billion years' worth of U-238 for use in these power plants. Breeder technology have been in use in dozen reactors already. There are also research projects working to develop the technology. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory being one, currently working on the small, sealed, transportable, autonomous reactor (SSTAR).
The possibility of nuclear accidents like Three Mile Island and Chernobyl have caused much public fear. Research are being done to lessen these problems of current reactor technology by developing reactors automated and passively safe.
The long-term radioactive waste storage problems of nuclear power have not been solved. One possible solution several countries are considering is using underground repositories. The U.S nuclear waste from various locations is planned to be entombed inside Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Nuclear waste take up little space, compared to say wastes from coal or other industry wastes toxical indefinitely. It could be greatly reduced with reprocessing. More far off, fusion or ADS system could eliminate waste.
Those advocating nuclear power point out that it is a cost competitive way to produce energy, including all costs such as decommissioning of the plants. . Using life cycle analysis, it takes 4-5 months of energy production from the nuclear plant to fully pay back the initial energy investment. Nuclear energy give more energy per input energy than many other energy sources. If energy would be scarce, this could be important.
Developing countries like India and China are rapidly building out their nuclear energy.
Renewable energy
- Main article: Renewable energy
Another possible solution to an energy shortage or predicted future shortage would be to use some of the world's remaining fossil fuel reserves as an investment in renewable energy infrastructure such as wind power, solar power, tidal power, geothermal power, hydropower, thermal depolymerization and biodiesel which do not suffer from a finite energy reserves, but do have a finite energy flow. The construction of a sufficiently large renewable energy infrastructure might avoid the economic consequences of an extended period of dramatically shrinking energy use per capita.
One of the most promising renewable energy sources is hydropower, but there is increasingly little damable river left. Dams produce electricity more cheaply than natural-gas turbines, and have reasonable capital costs. As a result, nearly every river in North America that can be dammed has been. Gigantic hydropower projects have recently been built all around the world (see Itaipu and Three Gorges Dam). Another promising renewable energy source may be wind power (currently over four times as efficient as solar PV power systems.
Solar trough concentrating power systems are economic in arid and semiarid regions today. This is particularly true if these solar power plants are designed to take full advantage of the combined heat and power potential outputs. These solar facilities can produce not only electricity, but also steam, hot water, chilled water, and ice using absorption refrigeration cycle equipment.
Thermal depolymerization and biodiesel are potential candidates to make up for oil depletion since they provide energy in a form that is both easily transportable and storable, like oil.
One factor potentially in renewable energy's favor is its much smaller environmental impact. Renewable energy sources may have a significantly smaller total "cost" compared with fossil fuel production after factoring in pollution, in other words, oil production is likely more expensive than the initial price seems to indicate and relative to renewable energy if you factor in the "cost" of pollution.
Energy storage and transportation fuel
There is a widely held misconception that hydrogen is an alternative to crude, oil-based liquid fuels. As there are no uncombined hydrogen reserves in nature, hydrogen is itself not a source of chemical energy. Hydrogen-based energy always involves conversion of an upstream energy source. Typically, this energy source is natural gas, in the case of the steam-reformed methane process, or electricity (generated by fossil fuels, nuclear, solar or wind), in the case of water electrolysis. Genetically modified organisms have also been proposed as a way to generate hydrogen.
Many of the potential power sources sometimes produce no power, and cannot increase production when demanded. For example, solar power produce no power during the night and during the winter, when demand is greater. The role of such power sources will be greatly limited, unless there is way to store large amounts of energy. It is as a means of storage and transportation of energy that hydrogen may play a very important role. (See Hydrogen economy) However, the idea is currently impractical: hydrogen is inefficient to produce, and expensive to store, transport, and convert back to electricity. Research is underway to ameliorate these problems; the outcome is at best uncertain.
Another potential role for hydrogen is as a transportable source of energy for vehicles, taking the place of gasoline. Diesel from the Fischer-Tropsch process, biodiesel and oil from thermal depolymerization have the advantage of already existing technology for diesel and gasoline engines and in place distribution infrastructure.
Speculative
Methane clathrate, solar power satellite, abiogenic petroleum origin, and helium on the moon have been proposed as very speculative future sources of energy. More long-term, proposed future technologies include hydrocarbons on other planets and a Dyson sphere.
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