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United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2012
← 2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
 
Nominee Scott Brown Elizabeth Warren
Party Republican Democratic
U.S. senator before election

Scott Brown
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

TBD

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts will take place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is running for re-election to a first full term after winning a special election in 2010. He will face Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren.

Background

Democratic U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006, and died August 25, 2009. Fellow-Democrat Paul Kirk was appointed September 24, 2009 to replace him until a special election could be held. In the January 19, 2010 special election, Republican State Senator Scott Brown defeated Democratic State Attorney General Martha Coakley. Brown began serving the remainder of Kennedy's term on February 4, 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Brown 		"More conservative
challenger" 		Other Undecided
Public Policy
Polling 		September 16-
18, 2011 		255 ± 6.1% 70% 21% — 9%

Democratic primary

The primary election was scheduled September 6, 2012, but the need for a primary was bypassed, with only Elizabeth Warren winning above the necessary 15% of delegates at the state Democratic convention.

Candidates

Withdrew
Declined

Polling and results

Poll
source 		Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Tom
Conroy 		Marisa
DeFranco 		Jim
King 		Alan
Khazei 		Bob
Massie 		Herb
Robinson 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Setti
Warren 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Sep. 16–18, 2011 461 ± 4.6% 7% 2% 9% 2% 1% 55% 1% 22%
UMass Lowell Sep. 22–28, 2011 1005 ± 3.8% 5% 4% 3% 3% 1% 36% 3% 1% 32%
YouGov America/Umass Amherst Nov. 9–22, 2011 122 ± 4.6% 7% 6% 2% 73% 13%
Suffolk University/7NEWS Feb. 11–15, 2012 218 ± [?] % 5% 1% 72% 20%
Suffolk University/7NEWS May 20–22, 2012 284 ± [?] % 6% 71% 12%
Convention vote June 2, 2012 3,500 0 % 4.23% 95.77%
Primary vote September 6, 2012 TBD 0 % TBD

General election campaign

This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (August 2012)
Republican Scott Brown

Republican Scott Brown is running as a "moderate." He has stressed his support for abortion rights. He was the first U.S. Senator to call for Todd Akin to drop out of the Missouri U.S. Senate race after his "legitimate rape" comment. He also called on the Republican Party to "recognize in its platform that you can be pro-choice and still be a good Republican." Although he is running on a pro-choice stance, he is endorsed by the anti-abortion group Massachusetts Citizens for Life and has earned an 80% rating from the National Right to Life Committee. Brown has stated that states should be allowed to decide whether or not to allow gay marriage. He opposed the anti-gay marriage stance of Chick-fil-A President Dan T. Cathy. To play up his crossover appeal, Brown's campaign ads have featured the endorsements of several former Massachusetts Democrats.

Democrat Elizabeth Warren

Democrat Elizabeth Warren advanced issues of job creation, economy, housing, health care, families, new energy, and eductation. Warren has been vocal as a non-Wall-street candidate willing to restore the balance in favor to the middle class and families. She also wants to and has acted to make Wall Street and big banks more accountable. Warren affirmed her intention to speak about Brown's voting record. Warren attacked Brown over his votes opposing job creation, opposing the Buffet Rule, opposing equal work/equal pay for women, and opposing women´s freechoice access to birth control (Blunt amendment)

Native American heritage controversy

On April 27, 2012, the Boston Herald reported that Harvard Law School had touted Warren's Native American heritage as proof of their faculty's diversity. When the Herald inquired about Warren's Native American heritage, her campaign failed to produce documents proving her family lineage, stating she had learned of her heritage through conversations with her family. The campaign also said that she never authorized Harvard Law to claim her as a minority hire and that she had no recollection of discussing her Native American heritage with the school's faculty before her hire. In response to the article, the Brown campaign called on Warren to apologize for allowing Harvard to claim she was part Native American and stated that she was participating in a “hypocritical sham” to boost Harvard’s diversity record.

On April 29, it was reported that Warren had listed herself as a minority professor in the Association of American Law Schools desk book from 1986 to 1995. She later said that she had listed herself as a minority “because I thought I might be invited to meetings where I might meet more people who had grown up like I had grown up.” The Warren campaign also released statements from deans and faculty at four universities she taught that attested that her ancestry never came up in the hiring process.

On April 30, The Boston Globe reported that genealogist Chris Child found that Warren's great-great-great grandmother was listed as a Cherokee on her son's marriage license. The Globe would later issue a retraction stating that the document was an application for a marriage license, not the license itself and that neither the New England Historic Genealogical Society nor the Globe has seen the primary document, which may or may not exist.

On May 2, when asked if she regretted self-identifying as Native American, Warren gave a response which included that statement that her Aunt Bee had remarked that her father, Warren's grandfather "had high cheekbones, like all of the Indians do". Cherokee genealogist Twyla Barnes later found the death certificate of Warren's aunt, in which her race is marked down as “white" and Warren herself is listed as the informant.

Debates

The candidates agreed to four televised debates. The first will be held on September 20 in WBZ-TV's studio and air live on WBZ and WBZ Newsradio 1030 from 7 to 8 pm. It will be moderated by the station's political reporter Jon Keller The second will take place on October 1 at UMASS Lowell. It will be co-hosted by the university and the Boston Herald and moderated by David Gregory On October 10, a Western Massachusetts consortium will host a debate at Springfield's Symphony Hall. It will be moderated by WGBY-TV's Jim Madigan. The final debate will take place on October 30 in WGBH-TV's studio. It will be hosted by a Boston media consortium.

The Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate proposed hosting a debate on September 27. Tom Brokaw would moderate and it would be broadcast by "our local NBC affiliate and/or MSNBC". However, Brown would only accept the invitation on two conditions. The first was that the debate be sponsored by local media instead of MSNBC, which Brown's campaign manager described as an "out-of-state cable network with a reputation for political advocacy". The second was that Victoria Reggie Kennedy, president of the board of the Institute, not endorse Brown's opponent. Kennedy refused to relinquish her right to endorse a candidate and the Institute released a letter stating that "This non-endorsement pledge is unprecedented and is not being required of any other persons or entities. To us, such a pledge seems inappropriate when a non-media sponsor issues a debate invitation.” Brown's campaign manager responded by stating “We respect Vicki Kennedy’s decision but we regret that we cannot accept a debate invitation from someone who plans to endorse Scott Brown’s opponent. The Kennedy Institute cannot hold itself out as a nonpartisan debate sponsor while the president of its board of trustees gets involved in the race on behalf of one of the candidates.”

Endorsements

For Scott Brown

Politicians

Military
Organizations
Rescinded

For Elizabeth Warren

Politicians
Entertainers & artists
  • Cher, singer and actress
Religious leaders
Organizations

Polling

In September 2011, Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a poll showing Elizabeth Warren with a 2-point lead over Brown, the first poll to show a Democrat leading Brown since the early days of the 2010 special election. PPP is a Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm; it had previously been the first pollster in the 2010 special election to find Brown ahead of Martha Coakley. Brown was reportedly very concerned about the result; other Republicans downplayed it as the work of "a Democrat (sic) polling firm funded in part by SEIU and which donates money to national Democrats." Supporters of PPP, however, have lauded the firm for not having a statistical bias in the past.

Hypothetical polling

Poll
source 		↑ Date(s)
administered 		class=small | Sample
size 		class=small | Margin
of error 		Democrats Republicans Other class=small | Undecided
Capuano Coakley Defranco J. Kennedy V. Kennedy King Khazei Markey Massie Murray Patrick S. Warren Brown
Public Policy
Polling 		rowspan=4 nowrap | November 29 –
December 1, 2010 		rowspan=4 | 500 rowspan=4 | ±
4.4% 		36% 52% 12%
41% 48% 11%
39% 49% 13%
42% 49% 9%
Western
N.E.
College 		March 6 –
10, 2011 		472 ±
4.5% 		38% 51% 10%
7News/
Suffolk
University 		rowspan=7 nowrap | April 3 –
5, 2011 		rowspan=7 | 500 rowspan=7 | ±
4.4% 		26% 52% 1% 19%
40% 45% 0% 13%
30% 52% 0% 16%
26% 53% 0% 19%
23% 51% 1% 22%
37% 52% 0% 11%
9% 52% 3% 32%
Public Policy
Polling 		rowspan=6 nowrap | June 2 –
5, 2011 		rowspan=6 | 957 rowspan=6 | ±
3.2% 		38% 48% 14%
40% 49% 10%
31% 50% 19%
37% 47% 16%
25% 48% 27%
23% 48% 29%
WBUR
MassInc 		rowspan=3 nowrap | August 30 –
September 1, 2011 		rowspan=3 | 500 rowspan=3 | ±
4.4% 		30% 45% 2% 21%
29% 45% 3% 22%
28% 46% 3% 23%
Public Policy
Polling 		rowspan=3 nowrap | September 16–
18, 2011 		rowspan=3 | 957 rowspan=3 | ±
3.2% 		33% 48% 18%
31% 49% 21%
32% 47% 21%
UMass Lowell rowspan=6 nowrap | September 22–
28, 2011 		rowspan=6 | 1005 rowspan=6 | ±
3.8% 		40% 41% 4% 12%
45% 37% 4% 12%
28% 40% 6% 18%
27% 43% 5% 19%
43% 36% 5% 13%
28% 43% 6% 16%
Suffolk/WHDH rowspan=2 |February 11-
15, 2012 		rowspan=2 |600 rowspan=2 |± 4.0% 22% 55% 2% 21%
21% 57% 2% 20%
Suffolk/WHDH May 20-
22, 2012 		600 ± 4.0% 28% 49% 0% 22%
Poll
source 		↑ Date(s)
administered 		class=small | Sample
size 		class=small | Margin
of error 		Capuano Coakley Defranco J. Kennedy V. Kennedy King Khazei Markey Massie Murray Patrick S. Warren Brown Other class=small | Undecided
Democrats Republicans
Brown vs. Warren
Poll source Dates
administered 		Sample
size 		MoE Scott
Brown 		Margin Elizabeth
Warren 		Other Undecided
Western N.E. University March 6 – 10, 2011 472 ± 4.5% 51% R+17% 34% 14%
Public Policy Polling June 2 – 5, 2011 957 ± 3.2% 47% R+15% 32% 21%
Public Policy Polling Sept. 16 – 18, 2011 957 ± 3.2% 44% D+2% 46% 10%
UMass Lowell Sept. 22 – 28, 2011 1005 ± 3.8% 41% R+3% 38% 3% 14%
Western N.E. University September 29 – October 5, 2011 475 ± 4.5% 47% R+5% 42% 10%
YouGov America/UMass Amherst November 9 – 22, 2011 433 ± 4.4% 39% D+4% 43% 4% 14%
Boston Herald/UMass Lowell Decdember 1 – 6, 2011 505 ± 5.3% 42% D+7% 49% 3% 6%
Mass Insight/Opinion Dynamics January 31 – February 4, 2012 456 ± 4.6% 52% R+10% 42% 6%
WBUR/MassInc February 6 – 9, 2012 505 ± 4.4% 43% D+3% 46% 1% 11%
Suffolk/WHDH February 11 – 15, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 49% R+9% 40% 2% 9%
Rasmussen Reports February 29, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% R+5% 44% 2% 5%
Western N.E. University February 23 – March 1, 2012 527 ± 4.3% 49% R+8% 41% 10%
Public Policy Polling March 16 – 18, 2012 936 ± 3.2% 41% D+5% 46% 13%
Boston Globe March 21 – 27, 2012 544 ± 4.2% 37% R+2% 35% 26%
Rasmussen Reports April 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% D+1% 46% 1% 8%
Mass Inc. April 25 – 28, 2012 438 ± 4.7% 41% D+2% 43% 1% 12%
Rasmussen Reports May 7, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% even 45% 2% 8%
Suffolk/WHDH May 20 – 22, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 48% R+1% 47% 5%
Boston Globe May 25 – 31, 2012 651 ± 3.8% 39% R+2% 37% 2% 23%
Western N.E. University May 29 – 31, 2012 504 ± 4.4% 43% D+2% 45% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 22 – 24, 2012 902 ± 3.3% 46% even 46% 8%
MassINC July 19 – 22, 2012 445 ± 4.4% 38% D+2% 40% 16%
Public Policy Polling August 16 – 19, 2012 1,115 ± 2.9% 49% R+5% 44% 8%
Kimball Political Consulting August 21, 2012 1,500 ± 4.0% 49% R+6% 43% 9%
Final vote November 6, 2012 TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Results

General election: November 6, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Scott Brown (incumbent) TBD TBD TBD
Democratic Elizabeth Warren TBD TBD TBD
Majority TBD TBD TBD
Turnout TBD TBD TBD

See also

Notes

1. The Western Massachusetts consortium consists of The Republican/MassLive.com, Daily Hampshire Gazette, New England Public Radio, WSHM-LD, WWLP-TV, WGGB-TV, WGBY-TV, Western New England University, Valley Press Club, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and the Springfield Public Forum.
2. The Boston media consortium consists of WGBH-TV/WGBH FM, WBUR, New England Cable News, WCVB-TV, WHDH, and The Boston Globe.

References

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  106. "Elizabeth Warren bags another endorsement in U.S. Senate race". maleague.org. masslive.com. Retrieved July 26, 2012.
  107. "United Auto Workers union endorses Elizabeth Warren for U.S. Senate". masslive.com. masslive.com. Retrieved February 8, 2012.
  108. "Democracy for America Current Endorsements". Democracy for America. Retrieved August 22, 2012.
  109. "Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown by two points" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved September 21, 2011.
  110. Taylor, Jessica (January 9, 2010). "Poll: Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley by 1 point". Politico. Retrieved September 21, 2011.
  111. McMorris-Santoro, Evan. "TPM Tipster: Scott Brown Feeling The Heat Over Warren's Polling Bump". Talking Points Memo. Retrieved September 21, 2011.
  112. Catanese, David (July 14, 2011). "The polling is right: Why PPP deserves props".
  113. Silver, Nate (November 4, 2010). "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly".
  114. Bialik, Carl (November 6, 2008). "Polls Foresaw Future, Which Looks Tough for Polling".

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